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15.6.2014. 9:35
Europa nakon parlamentarnih izbora- predavanje Karmele Belinki
 


Na Konvenciji ICJW ( International council of Jewish women) koja je održana u Pragu od 1-8.svibnja 2014, održano je predavanje prof.dr. Karmele Belinki, poznatog pisca  i analitičara iz Helsinkija. Prenosimo njeno predavanje u cijelosti.


EUROPE AFTER EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Dr Karmela Bélinki, Finland



There is an old German folk song about a certain Hans, who is expected by his woman friend Lies. In German it begins with “Heut’ kommt der Hans zu mir, freut sich die Lies”. She is eagerly waiting and wonders which way he will come. It all ends in that perhaps he does not come at all.  This song from my childhood came to my mind when I listened to and read prognoses for the EUparliamentary elections in May. “Hans” was the move from some kind of political stability towards radicalisation. Indeed, “Hans” did come and with might and main that shook the political establishment.


Losers were


the Social Democratsin many countries, particularly in France and in the Nordic countries, with a long tradition of social democracy.

Losers were also liberal-centre parties in many countries, which had traditionally had a pivotal role in conflicts.

 Losers, although not decisively, were also the moderate right wing groupings.

Media in several countries were ready to write and say that thesocial democratic ideology lagged behind and had not adapted to the changing world.

Parties in the middle with a task to juggle between poles are not as popular as before in the present political climate of financial unrest.

The moderate right lost votes for its economic policies. Not even the green groupings seemed attractive enough to maintain their position in many countries.



Overwhelming victory


was scored by radical movements both to the right and to the left in most European countries, by the left in i.a. Greece, and in many other countries by the extreme right. The most important political victory was scored by Marine Le Pen’s Front National in France with more than a quarter of the votes given in France. Her victory was above all the shameful loss of President Francois Hollande and his government. His popularity in France has dropped catastrophically as his economic programme has failed to implement. Marine Le Pen is a blatant anti-Semite, amongst other things, and has been fined for Holocaust denial and anti-Semitic hate-speech. In view of rising anti-Semitism in Europe in general, her victory is an alarming signal, as is the progression of the similar movement Jobbik in Hungary.



Complex Structure a Life-Raft?


But the European Union (perhaps luckily in this instance) has an almost incomprehensibly complex structure of governing, and the European Parliament, although having gained more influence than before, is not the only high power structure. There is also the Commission, an appointed governing structure, much smaller and more apt to act when necessary, the European Council with Heads of States of Governments, the Council with Cabinet Ministers of Governments and so on, all together 13 important institutions.


In the European Parliament no single national grouping can act independently and the fringe movements have to look for allies amongst the established groupings. On this day, June 1, 2014, Marine Le Pen is still looking for a group, and Jobbik has been rejected by its natural group. The EU critical groups do not want them either. And indeed, it would be difficult to imagine British Tories cooperating with them.


It will, of course, fall in place in the end, but it does not seem to be as easy as might have been expected. It should also be taken into consideration that EU elections are not as interesting to the voters as are national elections, and the number of votes falls considerably below that of national elections. T he European Union is not a federal structure, and with the present outcome of the EU Parliamentary elections, the eagerness to create the Federal Union of Europe will decline considerably.


The Iron Lady from Germany and Others


The outcome means that the present Iron Lady of Europe German Chancellor Angela Merkel will have an even more important role. Her relation to French President Francois Hollande was in the beginning rather frosty and has never really developed well. French dreams of becoming a super power again and particularly the leading power in Europe have crumbled, leaving the field more open to Angela Merkel’s Germany. Politics is not only about facts, but also about sentiments and personal relations.


Angela Merkel is from the Jewish point of view a much better European choice than fluctuating Francois Hollande, who is bound to lose the next French Parliamentary elections. The problem is that there are few real alternatives in France at the moment besides Marine Le Pen, a chilling

thought.


The European Union will also appoint new leaders to several important institutions. The horsetrading between groups and individuals started long ago and at worst will last all this year. President of the Commission, EU President and EU Foreign Minister are amongst the most sought after positions in the European Union.




Explanations or Pretexts



The radicalisation of European voters has been explained by economic distress. Another growing concern for European voters is migration of the well-educated from the poorer parts of Europe to the more affluent countries, i.e. brain drain. Emigration to Europe is an even greater concern in many European countries. The pressure to restrain immigration from non-European countries and free movement within Europe, due i.a. to the incompetence of European fringe countries, such as Bulgaria and Rumania, to cope with their ethnic and social problems, is growing and will most certainly affect the work of all EU governing institutions, the EU Parliament included. There is also growing resistance against the euro amongst the more established euro countries, but on the other hand there are many “new” EU countries striving for the euro as their currency.


Radikalizacija europskih glasača se objašnjava  ekonomskim poremećajima.. Raste zabrinutost za migraciju visoko obrazovanih iz siromašnijih dijelova Europe u bolje razvijene  zemlje- t.j "odljev mozgova". Emigracija u Europu još je veća briga mnogih zemalja.  Raste  pritisak na EU institucije  da se zaustavi imigracija iz ne-europskih zemalja i slobodno kretanje u Europi zbog nemogućnosti  nekih zemalja kao što su Rumunjska i Bugarska da se  nose sa svojim etničkim i socijalnim problemima. Postoji i otpor prema "Euru" u mnogim razvijenim EU zemljama, a s druge strane  mnoge "nove" EU zemlje  žele "Euro" kao svoju valutu.



The Jewish Perspective



Growing social and economic unrest tends to create scapegoats, and the Jews have been an easy target throughout the ages. After the Holocaust there has at least been an official trend to reject anti-Semitism in most European countries, but that trend has alarmingly changed lately. Anti- Semitism has been included in official programmes of ruling political parties, Hungary being the most blatant example at present.


Rastući socijalni i ekonomski nemiri imaju tendenciju da stvore  "žrtvenog jarca",  a Židovi su bili laka meta kroz stoljeća. Nakon Holokausta  bio je barem službeni trend da se odbaci antisemitizam u mnogim europskim zemljama, ali se to  mijenja u posljednje vrijeme što je poziv na alarm. Antisemitizam je uključen u službene programe nekih vladajućih stranaka, Mađarska je sada najbolji primjer.

  

 

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